Archive for » 2007 «
According to the information released by HOT TELECOM in its latest report “ Global Telecom Market Status and Forecast ” report, the global telecom services revenue reached US$1.5 trillion in 2006, representing a 7.4% increase on 2005, and a slight slowing of growth (which was 8.8% between 2004 and 2005). Over the forecasted period to the end of 2011, growth is projected to slow to a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.2% and revenue is expected to increase by US$347 billion to reach almost US$1.9 trillion.
The slowing of the revenue growth will be caused by the declining value of the fixed services market in a number of countries, increasing saturation in some mobile and Internet markets, and pressure on prices across all sectors. An increasing percentage of the world’s telecom revenue will be generated by mobile and Internet services and it is forecasted that mobile will surpass the fixed market, in terms of revenue, as early as the end of 2007.
By year-end 2006, the global aggregate number of fixed, mobile and Internet subscribers grew by 15.1% to over 4.4 billion and this number should grow by a further 12.3% to 5.0 billion by the end of 2007. Although fixed subscriber growth is slowing, the total number of fixed, mobile and Internet subscribers should grow by a CAGR of 8.6% over the next 5 years to reach 6.7 billion. The growth in number of subscribers will mainly be driven by new broadband and mobile connections.
Mobile should remain one of the main drivers of growth in customer numbers over the next 5 years. The mobile sector, which peaked in terms of expansion in 2004 and 2005 with growth rates of 25.2% and 25.6%, rose further to reach 2.69 billion customers in 2006, representing an increase of 23.7%. At that time, mobile penetration stood at 41.8%, a significant increase over 2005, when mobile penetration was 34.2%.
In its report, HOT TELECOM confirms that broadband will continue to be the fastest growing telecom sector, with a forecasted global CAGR of 14.0% over the next 5 years. The bulk of the broadband percentage growth will come from low broadband penetration regions such as MEA, Latin America and Eastern Europe .
When analysing the global telecom market on a regional basis, Asia is the largest region by far and now represents 45.6%, 38.4%, 40.4% and 37.1% of the world’s fixed, mobile, Internet and broadband subscribers respectively. MEA will be the fastest growing region in all sectors, apart from Internet, with forecasted CAGRs of 4.7%, 18.7%, 13.8% and 34.0% in the fixed, mobile, Internet and broadband sectors respectively.
Fixed/mobile/media consolidation is picking-up pace, mainly in North America and Western Europe, where many of the main incumbents are expanding beyond their core services markets and where fixed operators are acquiring mobile or media companies in order to improve their positioning in what looks like an increasingly quadruple play (fixed, mobile, Internet and video) orientated market.
The increasing focus on IT services, content and applications for growth is bringing telcos into competition with Internet companies, system integrators, media companies and even telecom equipment manufacturers. Meanwhile, many of those groups of players have also entered the telecoms service market. In the next few years, the major players from these sectors will collide in an increasingly converging market.
Operators are also facing increased competitive pressure from system integrators such as IBM, HP and Accenture, who are entering the telco space as solutions providers capable of delivering communications as part of a wider ICT delivery project. In return, the major global carriers such as AT&T, Verizon, France Telecom/Orange, and BT will continue their pursuit of “beyond telecom” acquisitions to gain IT solutions expertise and compete with these giants.
Fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) is on everyone’s lips; however few real FMC solutions are offered and service bundles are typically only joined at a pricing level. Yet, some genuine fixed-mobile convergence offerings did emerge in 2006, with dual mode phones and the seamless handoff of calls from the LAN to the cellular network. Some services, converging Internet and mobile technologies, such as soft phones on lap-tops and WiFi/mobile phones also became more prevalent. 2007 and 2008 should bring an expansion of real FMC offerings from carriers such as BT, Orange and Verizon.
As mobile operators are seeking to increase their wireless data revenue, mobile advertising has increasingly featured on carriers’ agenda. Mobile advertising is unlikely to soar before 2010-2012, as it will take time to develop the high-speed networks and data-friendly handsets required to support this service, and operators have to find service models that customers are willing to accept.
Wireless broadband networks are being deployed especially in emerging markets such as Eastern Europe, MEA, Latin America and some Asian countries, where fixed networks are lacking. The deployment of WiMAX is present in low fixed penetration countries where operators use this technology to rapidly offer not only Internet, but also voice services to households. WiMAX is expected to take off in the US from 2008 onwards, but it will be a while before the appropriate networks are deployed across the country.
* courtesy by hottelecom.com
According to the information released by HOT TELECOM (www.hottelecom.com) in its latest report “Mexico telecom country profile 2008”, Mexico’s telecom industry has registered significant growth over the last five years, with telecom revenue increasing by an average annual rate of 17.3% to US$28.6 billion at the end of 2007. Mexico’s telecom sector increased by 27.9% in 2007 and the year-on-year growth reached an unprecedented 36.4% in the first quarter of 2008.The telecom sector was mostly stimulated by the mobile market, the strong trunking sector as well as the expansion of satellite services.
Mobile continues to be the most dynamic market, partly due to an increase in subscribers, but also to an increase in mobile traffic. Mobile traffic increased by 48.6% in 2007, the strongest growth since 2000. At the end of 2007, there were 68.2 million mobile subscribers and this number had increased to 71.1 million three months later at the end of March 2008.
Mobile growth started to slow in 2007 and this tendency should continue over the next 5 years. The number of mobile customers is therefore forecasted to reach 103 million at the end of 2012, representing a penetration of 86.2% and an average growth rate of 18.5% over the next 5 years.
At the end of 2007, Mexico had 19.76 million fixed lines in service, and this number had increased by 0.3% by the end of March 2008 to 19.81 million. The next 5 years should see stagnation in the fixed line sector, with a forecasted average growth rate of 1.2%, ending 2012 with 20.9 million fixed subscribers. Most of the growth should come from new operators in the cable sector, as well as fixed-wireless expansion in rural areas.
Despite Mexico’s noteworthy average growth rate of 22.8% in its number of Internet subscribers over the last 5 years, its Internet sector remains greatly under-developed, with an Internet penetration rate as low as 5.3% and 5.8 million subscribers at the end of 2007. Internet subscribers are forecasted to grow by 12.9% over the next 5 years to reach 10.7 million at the end of 2012.
Most of the growth has been and will continue to be generated by the proliferation of broadband services, as the number of broadband customers increased by an average of 84.4% in the last five years to 4.5 million at the end of 2007. Broadband customers, which now account for an estimated 79.0% of all Internet connections, are forecasted to represent 100% of all Internet customers by the end of 2009.
This 40-page report, which includes 29 details exhibits and tables on Mexico’s telecom market, declares that broadband, especially ADSL, is one of the fastest growing markets in Mexico. The shift from dial-up to broadband became apparent in 2005, when dial-up accounts started to decrease, while broadband soared by around 77.5%. “At the end of 2007, ADSL connections represented 69.2% of all broadband connections and 53.9% of all Internet customers” HOT TELECOM’s president Isabelle Paradis said.
> courtesy: hottelecom.com
