According to the information released by HOT TELECOM (www.hottelecom.com) in its latest report “Vietnam Telecom country profile”, Vietnam is one of the world’s top 10 countries in terms of information and communications technology (ICT) growth and should remain in that list for the next 5 years.
Until recently, the country’s incumbent operator VNPT enjoyed a monopoly in the fixed and mobile arena. This situation is however rapidly evolving, with 7 fixed operators, 7 licensed mobile operators and 65 ISPs.
Vietnam’s fixed market has undergone a steady growth of 24.5% in the last 5 years. Nevertheless, this trend started to decrease in 2008 and should continue to do so as fixed/mobile substitution accelerates. The number of fixed customers increased by 14.4% in 2008, to reach 13.1 million. The number of fixed lines is therefore expected to grow by an average of 5.2% over the next 5 years to reach 16.9 million and a penetration of 18.2% at the end of 2013.
The mobile market is the country’s most dynamic telecom sector with an average growth of 91.3% in the last 5 years, to reach 69.1 million subscribers and a penetration of 79.7% at the end of 2008. The growth rate of the last 5 years should start decreasing significantly as early as 2009, with a forecasted average growth rate of 10.3% over the next 5 years, bringing the number of mobile connections to 112.1 million at the end of 2013. At that time mobile penetration should have reached 120.8%.
Akin to many other developing countries, Vietnam’s Internet market is greatly underdeveloped. “Low PC penetration (estimated at 14.0%), poor network development, beyond Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City and high interconnection fees are all factors contributing to this situation” HOT TELECOM’s president Isabelle Paradis said. However, government efforts over the last 5 years, the advent of competition and the introduction of broadband have started to bear fruits. Internet penetration grew from 2.0% in 2004 to 7.7% in 2008 and Internet subscribers increased 5-fold from 1.7 million to 6.7 million.
Broadband services are finally taking off and accounted for 30.6% of all Internet connection at the end of 2008, compared with only 3.2% in 2004. After growing by 220.0% over the last 5 years, broadband customers reached 2.0 million at the end of 2008. Significant growth is expected to continue over the next 5 years with dial-up/broadband substitution increasing steadily.
Broadband subscribers are forecasted to grow at an average rate of 32.7% over the next 5 year to reach 8.4 million by the end of 2013. The number of dial-up customers is therefore expected to start decreasing from 2008 onwards and broadband customers should represent 81.9% of all Internet connections at the end of the forecasted period.
courtesy: hottelecom.com
According to the information released by HOT TELECOM (www.hottelecom.com) in its latest report “Indonesia Telecom country profile”, Indonesia should enjoy by far one of Asia highest fixed growth in the next 5 years and should become the world’s 4th largest mobile market.
With its population close to 228 million people, the world’s fourth largest country is one of the strategic growth markets in Asia. However, Indonesia’s population continues to be one of the least connected in the region with fixed, mobile and Internet penetration rates as low as 13.4%, 62.7% and 1.1% respectively at the end of March 2009. Its connectivity level compares poorly with neighbouring countries such as Singapore where fixed, mobile and Internet penetration are as high as 37.9%, 129.4% and 98.4%, and Malaysia, were mobile penetration stands at 94.8%. Indonesia however still surpasses India in terms of fixed and mobile penetration.
Indonesia has a low fixed line proliferation, with 30.8 million fixed and fixed-wireless subscribers at the end of March 2009. This is mainly due to poor network development in rural areas, high poverty level and accelerating mobile substitution. The introduction of fixed-wireless technology has however drastically improved network development in the last 4 years. Fixed-wireless customers, now represent 71.9% of all fixed connections, compared with 16.4% at the end of 2004.
With the expansion of the fixed-wireless network in rural areas and the introduction of competition and foreign investments, the number of fixed subscribers is forecasted to grow at a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 12.3% over the next 5 years, bringing the number of fixed lines to 52.4 million at the end of 2013, which would represent a penetration rate of 20.8%. “Indonesia should therefore enjoy by far one of Asia highest fixed growth in the next 5 years” HOT TELECOM’s president Isabelle Paradis said.
The mobile market on the other hand is continuing its expansion, with an average growth of 49.8% between 2003 and the end of 2008. At the end of 2008, the country boasted 138.8 million mobile customers, representing an increase of 49.2% in that year alone. The growth trend is likely to continue in the double-digits until 2011, with a forecasted CAGR of 12.3% in the next 5 years, bringing the number of mobile customers to 246.1 million at the end of the forecasted period, representing a penetration rate of 97.8%. At that time, Indonesia will have become the world’s 4rth largest mobile market behind China, India and the United States. At the end of March 2009, Indonesia’s mobile subscribers stood at an estimated 143.6 million.
With a penetration rate of 1.1%, Indonesia’s Internet development is far behind most Asian countries. At the end of March 2009, the country had an estimated 2.4 million subscribers and 28.5 million users. The advent of broadband, wireless Internet and the proliferation of the fixed-wireless network in rural areas should however stimulate growth in the next 5 years with a forecasted CAGR of 7.8%. Broadband proliferation is still well behind most major Asian countries, however operators are now focusing on developing high speed networks, and projects in that realm is becoming a priority. The introduction of wireless broadband should also stimulate this sector greatly. The number of broadband subscribers is therefore forecasted to have reached 3.2 million at the end of 2013 and at that time, the service should connect 93.6% of all Internet subscribers.
* courtesy: hottelecom.com
